Southern Africa Malaria Forecast for the 2005/6 Malaria Season

Southern Africa is likely to receive normal to above normal rains during the 2005-2006 malaria season with possibilities of a bimodal malaria transmission pattern with the first malaria incidence increase occurring in December 2005 and January 2006 and a second wave during the months of April and May 2006.

High transmission is expected in Angola, Zambia, Northern Botswana, Central and Northern Mozambique, northern Zimbabwe, extreme northern Namibia, extreme Northern Malawi, and Western Tanzania and in all malarious areas of Madagascar and Comoros. Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) application and Insecticides treated nets (ITNs) distribution and re-treatment in the above-mentioned countries have been implemented since November and should be concluded before the end of December to minimize transmission. In most of the malaria endemic areas malaria transmission is expected to be normal with some areas recording above normal transmission. Swaziland and South Africa are expected to record below normal malaria incidence and transmission.

Although some countries such as Botswana, Madagascar, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland have reached considerable high levels of coverage in the delivery of malaria control interventions, isolated outbreaks can also be expected in these countries. Therefore, surveillance and use of malaria epidemic detection tools are highly recommended and should be strengthened April. Some of the countries in the subregion may experience high incidences of malaria, therefore malaria drugs, other malaria commodities and logistics should be put in place in preparation for the 2005 - 2006 malaria season.

The current neutral condition of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, one of the factors associated with seasonal rainfall in the SADC region is forecasted to persist for the next six months. Its impact will result in wide spread rains across Southern Africa especially during the peak summer months of December and, January and February.

National malaria control programs (NMCPs) are advised to focus on high operational coverage of indoor residual spraying (about 85%), re-treatment of all mosquito nets, avail drugs for case management. NMCPs teams are encouraged to build capacity for malaria EPR during the months of November, December and January. Again National Malaria Control Teams in Angola, Madagascar, Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe are advised put in place malaria strategies in case floods and cyclones occur especially during the months of February and March and particularly in the districts that had floods during the 2004-2005 malaria season.

Malaria Control Actions

Ugent Actions Required To Prevent Increase Malaria Transmission And Epidemics Before December 2005

	Targeted intensification of all malaria control activities in selected above to normal transmission and epidemic risk districts is required by NMCPs and partners.
	Indoor residual house spraying should be focussed to target districts where above normal malaria transmission is expected.
	Intensive efforts to scale up the distribution and net re-treatment of mosquito nets should be conducted.
	Social and community mobilization activities to raise malaria awareness among the general public should be carried to coincide the SADC Malaria week activities which are carried out during the start of the malaria season.

Action Required From The General Public

	Protect pregnant women and young children are at greater risk of malaria. Where possible all pregnant women and children under five should sleep under an insecticide treated mosquito net.
	Pregnant women should take preventive malaria treatment as advised by their health worker.
	Make sure you have treated mosquito nets to protect yourself and your family against mosquito bites.
	Use mosquito repellents and wear long sleeved clothing to avoid mosquito biting.
	Seek Malaria treatment early if you show any of the malaria signs and symptoms
	Complete malaria treatment as advised by your doctor or health worker
	Do not wash or re-plaster walls sprayed with insecticides.
	Report any seasonal increase in malaria and epidemics in a localized area.

Co-ordinated Action Required From WHO, The Multilateral And Bilateral Agencies

	Preparation of emergency technical support, and mobilization of emergency funds to support malaria epidemic response.
	Investing in long term support for malaria control programs

Action Required Now From The Press

	Save lives by informing the public on current malaria situation and control.
	Save lives by educating the public on how best they can protect themselves from malaria.
	Provide malaria information updates to inform and to sensitize the general public about malaria

Health workers, the public, the media, bilateral and multilateral agencies can work together to prevent malaria and to save lives – Let’s all act now

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