Malaria Season in Southern Africa (Oct 2002-May 2003): Rapid Response Required

The World Health Organization-Southern African Malaria Control programme in Harare (SAMC) has issued regional malaria forecasts for the period October to December 2002 and January to March 2003. This follows the metrological forecast issued by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, which has been coordinated by SADC, Drought Monitoring Center in Harare. The regional malaria forecasts has been based on expert opinion based on past malaria trends and access and coverage of the population to malaria control interventions. These forecasts will have to be taken further at country level for malaria forecasts at provincial and district level

The regional malaria forecast indicates as expected a start of malaria transmission in November 2002. With a probability of sharp increases and local epidemics in late December 2002 and January 2003 in Southern Mozambique and Eastern Zimbabwe.

October to December 2002 Malaria Forecast
Normal malaria transmission season predicted over most of Southern Africa with the exception of South Africa and Swaziland, which are expected to have below normal malaria transmission. 

January to March 2003 Preliminary Malaria Forecast 
Botswana, South Africa and Swaziland are expected to have below normal malaria transmission; the rest of the region is expected to have normal malaria transmission. Southern Angola and Northern Namibia are forecasted to expect malaria outbreak in March to May 2003. This preliminary forecast will have to be updated in December 2002 with changing climatic conditions.

Malaria and Drought and Humanitarian crises in Southern Africa 2002-2003
The current 2002 drought and the associated hunger, famine and malnutrition over high levels of HIV/AID cases are expected to have an impact on both endemic and epidemic malaria transmission areas. This impact will be seen especially in worst affected districts and special vulnerable populations such as children, pregnant women, people living with malaria infection and people living with Aids in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

There are three malaria transmission patterns associated with drought and malnutrition namely:-

1. A reduction in population immunity, exacerbated by malnutrition in malaria endemic areas could result in increase malaria incidence and severity.

2. Population movement with people moving to seek food and population aggregation at food distribution points could result in an increased malaria risk

3. An increased potential for localized explosive epidemics in the malaria epidemic prone areas during period of drought due to erratic rainfall patterns resulting in a biological rebound of mosquito populations.

RAPID MALARIA CONTROL RESPONSE 2002-2003

National malaria control programs are encouraged to rapidly respond in the next two months to mitigate the effects of increased malaria transmission and epidemics:

• Downscale regional malaria forecasts and prepare adapted national and district forecasts by end of October 2002. Initiate weekly surveillance on malaria cases, deaths and epidemics

• Ensure that adequate estimated malaria control commodities namely drugs, insecticides, laboratory diagnostics including rapid test kits have been procured by October 2002.

• Prepare to mobilize the communities, families and health workers though Information, Education and campaign materials building around SADC Malaria Day in November 8th 2002. Malaria is their problem.

• Implement vector control activities namely indoor residual household spraying and mass campaigns for distribution of new nets and re-treatment of Insecticide Treated Materials. 

Joint Coordinated Action Required By National Partners, Multilateral and Bilateral Agencies
à Mobilization of local, religious, traditional and political leaders to support local action and local mobilization resources

• Joint coordinated support by WHO, UNICEF, IFRC, WFP and NGOS, MSF, OXFAM, SCF to national malaria control programmes and Ministries of Health to support a rapid delivery response to mitigate the impact of malaria due to drought.

• Prepare to provide emergency funds, and mobilize emergency technical assistance to national programmes to target drought and malaria affected districts. 

Action required by individuals, families and communities

• Allow malaria spraying teams to spray their houses and not repaint or re-plaster walls until the end of the malaria season.

• Make sure your old mosquito nets have been recently re-treated with insecticides to protect yourself and your family against mosquito bites. Procure new treated mosquito nets 

• Seek malaria treatment early (within 12-24 hours) if you show malaria signs and symptoms

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